November 13, 2008 at 7:41 a.m.

Woolly Bears help predict winter in CLMS seventh grade science class

Woolly Bears help predict winter in CLMS seventh grade science class
Woolly Bears help predict winter in CLMS seventh grade science class

No need to worry about breaking out the snow shovels or buying a new snowblower this year. It's going to be a mild winter in Minnesota - if you believe the woolly bears.

Pat Collins once again took his seventh grade scientists out to the woods and prairies of Ki Chi Saga Park and the open areas surrounding Chisago Lakes Middle School, to collect the caterpillars that will later become Isabella Tiger Moths.

The kids hunted for the cute, fuzzy black and brown striped creatures during "Make a Difference Day" this fall at the park. They were excited to bring their collection back to the classroom for further study.

Collins then had each student fill out a chart with measurements completed on each caterpillar. They were instructed to measure both black stripes on the ends of the caterpillar and the brown stripe in between.

As the measurements were compiled, the students learned a little bit more about the myth of the woolly bear caterpillar predicting the severity of the upcoming winter.

Collins asked students to discuss why a caterpillar was first used to help predict winter. He said it was an idea of early American settlers and Native Americans to follow the signs of animals to predict the weather.

"They didn't have technology to predict like we do. They used all the animal signs they could find to help plan how many provisions they would need for the winter," Collins said.

According to folklore, if the middle stripe of a woolly bear is wider than either outer stripe, we can expect a mild winter.

Overwhelmingly, the woolly bears collected by Collins' students predicted a mild winter, with their brown stripes measuring wider than the end sections.

But does anyone really still believe the tale? Not really, according to a quick survey of the CLMS students.

Most said they don't believe it. Some, like Sophie, may put more stock in the theory after winter is over.

"I don't know if I believe it, but I'll see after this winter," she said.

Kellen, who collected one of the last caterpillars, as the woolly bear made its way toward a winter hibernation spot, said it was a fun project.

"I'll be thinking about it this winter," he said.

Taking measurements was just one phase of the woolly bear project. Next, the students completed worksheets, answering frequently asked questions (FAQs) about the woolly bears. They were also asked to bring in a picture of the Isabella Tiger Moth, to see what the woolly bears will become next spring.

Collins said he has conducted the woolly bear experiment for 20 years with his classes.

"It's about data collection, nature and folklore," he said.

The findings aren't exactly precise scientific data, however. Some are skewed from the bias of the scientists themselves, Collin said.

"We'll see that the kids who like winter, maybe like outdoor sports and snow, are leaning toward measurements of a more severe winter, while the kids who don't are saying it will be mild," he said. "But over the 20 years, the caterpillars have usually been right," Collins said.

He said the students will revisit the project in the spring by looking back at the winter weather, and collecting Isabella Tiger Moths.


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